VATICAN CITY – With Pope Francis now gone, the College of Cardinals will enter the sealed Sistine Chapel to choose his successor. The field of leading “papabili” (“pope‑ables”) is unusually broad, stretching across four continents and the full spectrum of Catholic thought.
Here’s a quick tour of the frontrunners—their résumés, pastoral instincts and the issues they would likely put front‑and‑center if white smoke appears for them.
1. Jean‑Marc Aveline — France
Born in French Algeria in 1958 and raised in Marseille, Cardinal Aveline studied philosophy and theology locally before completing a doctorate at the Catholic Institute of Paris. Elevated to Archbishop of Marseille in 2019 and made a cardinal by Francis in 2022, he has championed dialogue with Islam, convinced that “the Mediterranean is a theology in motion.”
Francis‑minded on social issues and naturally informal in style, Aveline delights in walking the docks of Marseille to chat with migrants and dockworkers. His intellectual heft (he still teaches theology), combined with a gift for listening across cultures, could make him a compelling bridge‑builder—France’s first pope since 1378 and one who would keep the Church’s eyes on migration and inter‑faith coexistence.
2. Péter Erdő — Hungary
A prodigy in canon law, Erdő earned doctorates in both theology and civil law before turning 40, and today heads the historic See of Esztergom‑Budapest as Primate of Hungary. He ran the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences for two terms, giving him a Rolodex that reaches from Lisbon to Kinshasa.
Ideologically he leans conservative—firm on liturgy and bioethics—yet few question his political finesse: he kept channels open with Francis on migrants and synodality even while defending Hungary’s particular path. Supporters say he would restore doctrinal clarity without provoking schism; critics fear he might slow Francis‑era reforms.
3. Mario Grech — Malta
The former Bishop of Gozo shocked many in 2020 when Francis tapped him to run the global Synod of Bishops—the engine room of the pontiff’s “listening Church.” Under Grech, every diocese worldwide held grassroots listening sessions; he calls the process “the biggest focus group in human history.”
Pastorally, Grech has urged a welcoming tone toward divorced and remarried Catholics and says the Church must “learn to accompany before it can admonish.” He would likely push hard to institutionalize synodality, giving local churches greater say in liturgy, governance and outreach to LGBT Catholics—moves that thrill reformers and unsettle traditionalists.
4. Juan José Omella — Spain
Fluent in Spanish, Catalan and French, the Barcelona archbishop spent formative years as a missionary in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Those experiences forged a bishop who cites the Beatitudes more than canon law and who famously turned archdiocesan residences into homeless shelters during Spain’s 2008 crash.
As president of Spain’s bishops (2020‑24) he steered a once‑fractious conference toward unanimous support for victims of clerical abuse and launched parish “listening desks” for migrants. Omella embodies the social‑justice wing of Catholicism; a pontificate under him would likely amplify Francis’s calls for an “economy that kills no one.”
5. Pietro Parolin — Italy
Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is the Holy See’s chief diplomat and the man behind its 2018 provisional accord with Beijing on bishop appointments, the Ukraine‑Russia prisoner swaps, and quiet back‑channel talks with Washington and Tehran.
He avoids culture‑war rhetoric, preferring neutral phrases like “integral human development.” Insiders see him as a stabilizer: a pope who would refine Francis’s reforms rather than rewrite them, rely on professionalized governance, and keep Vatican diplomacy at the center of global conflict‑resolution efforts.
6. Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle — Philippines
The son of a working‑class Manila family with Chinese heritage, Tagle shot to prominence at the 2012 Synod on the New Evangelization, where his tear‑filled intervention on humility “stopped the hall cold.” Now pro‑prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, he oversees the Church’s vast mission territories and heads global Caritas.
Dubbed the “Asian Francis,” he blends a scholar’s mind (his PhD is from Catholic University of America) with street‑corner storytelling that packs arenas across Asia. Expect a Tagle papacy to spotlight the poor, climate justice and digital evangelization—while shifting the Vatican’s geographic center of gravity toward the Global South.
7. Joseph Tobin — United States
A Redemptorist who once rode a Harley and learned Spanish in immigrant parishes, Tobin served in Rome as secretary of the congregation overseeing religious orders before leading Indianapolis and now Newark. He earned plaudits for opening diocesan finances, welcoming Syrian refugees into chancery housing and telling LGBT Catholics, “The Church is your home.”
Geopolitics makes an American pope improbable—U.S. superpower status worries many electors—but Tobin’s crisis‑management skills, blue‑collar authenticity and global résumé keep his name alive. If elected, he would likely advance transparency reforms and expand lay leadership, especially for women religious.
8. Peter Turkson — Ghana
Bible in one hand, economics texts in the other, Turkson oversaw two Vatican think‑tanks on justice and development and helped draft Laudato si’, Francis’s eco‑encyclical. Since 2022 the soft‑spoken polyglot has served as chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences and Social Sciences, rubbing shoulders with Nobel laureates on climate and AI.
Long admired for pastoral work in Ghana’s gold‑mining regions, he frames Catholic social teaching as “boots on the ground” solidarity. A Turkson papacy would mark the first from sub‑Saharan Africa and almost certainly elevate issues like debt relief, extractive‑industry ethics and food security.
9. Matteo Maria Zuppi — Italy
Formed in Rome’s Community of Sant’Egidio, Zuppi helped broker the 1992 Mozambique peace accords in his early 30s. Now Archbishop of Bologna and president of Italy’s bishops, he moonlights as Pope Francis’s personal envoy in cease‑fire diplomacy, most recently shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow.
Known locally as “Don Matteo,” he bicycles city streets, blesses tattoo parlors and celebrates Mass at migrant hostels. Ideologically he hugs the Francis line—mercy first, rules second—but adds an Italian flair for grassroots peacemaking. Many see him as the candidate who could unite reformists and traditionalists without losing the Church’s missionary edge.
Predicting the conclave’s outcome is famously tricky—remember the old Roman warning: “He who enters a conclave as a pope, leaves it as a cardinal.”
Yet the breadth of today’s field says a lot about Catholicism’s shifting center of gravity. An Asian or African choice would spotlight booming faith communities in the Global South; a European diplomat might steady the Church through turbulent geopolitics.
Whoever emerges will confront questions of social justice, climate, inter‑faith dialogue and Church governance—all under the brightest global spotlight.
As the doors of the Sistine Chapel close, the only certainty is uncertainty. The next pontiff will shape not only 1.3 billion Catholics but also the moral vocabulary of our interconnected world.
