At present, the USD/CAD exchange rate is potentially finding temporary succor near the 1.3650 level. This is speculated due to the forecasted decision by the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates on June 5, and expectations of a rebound for the U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve suspension of rate reductions in September becomes increasingly likely.
Due to U.S. public holiday impact, trading volume on Monday is expected to be lower, with trading looking to be cautious and within the confines of the 1.3650 support level. With the U.S. Memorial Day holiday under way, trends are uncertain but expected to see an increase with market re-opening on Tuesday.
Friday observed a robust sell-off of the Canadian Dollar, primarily spurred by a weakening U.S. dollar and a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields. Investors are expressing concerns about America’s capacity to uphold growth amidst indicators of inflation. Furthermore, Canada’s dwindling trade surplus with the United States has put more pressure on their currency.
Friday’s sharp sell-off was also influenced by the Bank of Canada signaling it might taper off stimulus measures earlier than predicted, and fears over U.S.-China trade relations. However, some believe that this could be a passing phase, and the Canadian currency may recover, especially if the U.S. Federal Reserve curtails their monetary policy easing sooner than anticipated.
According to specific trading instruments, probabilities of stable interest rates slightly exceed 50%, up from last week’s 38%.
USD/CAD dips amid BoC rate cut predictions
This stability encourages long-term investments, supporting investor confidence in the financial market. However, these predictions are based on probabilistic analysis and are subject to change. Investors are advised to stay updated and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Positive Preliminary Purchasing Managers Index data for May largely supports the continuation of the current U.S. monetary policy. However, reduced domestic spending introduces an element of risk which may influence the BoC to lower rates during the upcoming monetary policy review on June 5.
Canadian retail sales have been negatively impacted, displaying a decline for the third month in a row. This, coupled with the slump in household spending, strongly indicates a need for BoC policy normalization. Nevertheless, due to differing views among officials and global economic uncertainties, reaching a consensus may prove challenging. The government continues monitoring the situation closely and is ready to take necessary measures to maintain financial stability.
