Joint statement by the Foreign Ministers of Finland and Germany on the severed undersea cable in the Baltic Seahttps://t.co/ek1SwgbEXh
— MFA Finland 🇫🇮 (@Ulkoministerio) November 18, 2024
The US State Department expressed significant concern about Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign against the West, amidst fears of escalation following Ukraine’s use of US-made missiles on targets inside Russia. Moscow has promised an “appropriate” response and has engaged in nuclear sabre-rattling by revising its nuclear doctrine in recent days. Western officials, however, believe that Russia’s retaliation may manifest in different forms of hybrid attacks worldwide rather than direct military confrontations on the battlefield.
European ministers discussed Russia’s asymmetric warfare during a meeting in Brussels.
This is why securing global undersea cables network must be a national security priority⬇️https://t.co/mf5NWX9CzI
— Senator Todd Young (@SenToddYoung) November 19, 2024
France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom accused Russia in a joint statement of “systematically attacking European security architecture”. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller elaborated on the concerns, highlighting recent sabotage of fiber-optic communication cables in the Baltic Sea and asserting that Russia would be “held accountable” for any further such actions.
We are deeply concerned about the severed cable in the Baltic Sea, raising suspicions of intentional damage. An investigation is underway. Our shared security relies on protecting critical infrastructure. Full statement by @ElinaValtonen and @ABaerbock: https://t.co/jfgHlFLduP pic.twitter.com/5oM46cFZdb
— GermanForeignOffice (@GermanyDiplo) November 18, 2024
Russia’s defence ministry claimed to have intercepted several missiles during the recent Ukraine attack in the Bryansk region, with debris from the intercepted rockets causing a fire at an unnamed military facility. However, US officials report fewer missiles were intercepted than claimed by Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov promised a calculated response to the missile strikes, viewing them as an act of heightened conflict between Washington and its NATO allies with Russia.
Another subsea telecoms cable has been severed – this one in the Baltic between Germany & Finland.
Reminder that the internet is a PHYSICAL network. Everything you read here travelled down fibre optics (made from glass, which is in turn made from sand). https://t.co/USWqlNStZa— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) November 19, 2024
In conjunction, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a revised nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the country’s nuclear weapons use. Amid this tense environment, US and European officials have also assessed the potential increase in Russian hybrid attacks on infrastructure in the West. These could range from sabotage and cyber-attacks to state-sponsored terrorism, targeting military bases and critical infrastructure.
Hybrid attacks threaten European infrastructure
Finland’s Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen emphasized the need for NATO and the EU to strengthen safeguards against potential sabotage. These sentiments were echoed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who underscored the broadening frontline of the conflict extending beyond Ukraine into Western Europe and the Baltic region.
Germany’s Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, suspects the damage to Baltic Sea cables could not have been accidental, hinting at Russian involvement. If confirmed, it suggests preparations occurred well before the US-approved Atacms missiles for Ukraine. In Europe, there is a palpable sense of unpreparedness in confronting Moscow’s escalating hybrid warfare.
Former European defense officials cite inadequate resources to efficiently counter possible Russian sabotage attacks, predicting an intensification post the decision to arm Ukraine with long-range missiles. US and German intelligence agencies have been working to counteract Russian plots, including foiling potential assassinations of defense industry executives across Europe. Furthermore, Russian support to adversarial entities such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon may also increase as part of their broader strategic retaliation.
Ukraine has officially acknowledged its missile strikes on a military arsenal outside Karachev, signaling a targeted effort to disrupt Russian logistics and ammunition supplies. Videos circulating online corroborate reports of night-time explosions in the region. Despite Russia’s aggressive posture, some analysts, like political analyst Anton Barbashin, suggest that while increased missile strikes may exacerbate tensions, they are unlikely to provoke nuclear retaliation.
Analysts foresee a probable increase in attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure as the colder months approach. The ongoing conflict continues to strain international relations and bows the persistent threat of further escalation, making diplomatic and defensive preparedness crucial for both European and American officials.
