Boeing, the Seattle-based aircraft manufacturer, has released projections for the air cargo market, anticipating substantial growth over the next two decades. According to Boeing’s annual World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) for 2024, the air cargo market is expected to increase by 4% year-over-year until 2043, effectively doubling during this period. Darren Hulst, Vice President of Commercial Marketing at Boeing, commented on the forecast, stating, “As the quickest and most reliable way to move goods, air cargo’s sustained growth has returned the industry to its long-term trend.
There will be many drivers for continued freighter demand over the next 20 years, including the expansion of emerging markets and global growth in manufacturing and e-commerce.”
Boeing’s forecast includes the delivery of 2,845 freighter aircraft within the next two decades. This figure comprises 1,005 new production freighter aircraft and 1,840 cargo-to-freighter conversions. The projected breakdown of these deliveries is as follows:
– Standard-body freighter aircraft: 1,250
– Medium-widebody freighter aircraft: 785
– Large-widebody freighter aircraft: 810
Among Boeing’s offerings are several cargo aircraft models, including converted passenger airplanes such as the B737-800BCF, which can hold a net payload of 21.5 tons, and the B767-300BCF, capable of carrying 51.6 tons.
Additionally, Boeing produces the 767-300 Freighter and the new Boeing 777-8 Freighter, which can carry 52.4 tons and 112.3 tons of cargo, respectively. Boeing’s report forecasts an increase of over 1,500 aircraft in the global air cargo fleet, climbing from 2,340 freighters in 2024 to approximately 3,900 by 2043.
Boeing’s air cargo forecast trends
High-growth markets are expected to see the majority of these new orders, with the Asian market’s large widebody freighter fleet projected to double. Moreover, the Asian-Pacific market is anticipated to require 980 new freighter aircraft, while North America will need around 955. Growth in demand is expected to be driven primarily by emerging markets such as East and South Asia.
The India-cargo market, for example, is predicted to nearly quadruple, with a significant expansion in express cargo services. Overall, express carriers will expand their market share from the current 18% to 25%. Boeing remains optimistic about the future of air cargo, highlighted by Hulst’s remark on the industry’s resilience and adaptability in facing global economic challenges.
As global trade and e-commerce continue to grow, the demand for air cargo services is poised to maintain a steady upward trajectory. Boeing’s projections indicate a robust growth trajectory for the air cargo industry, with an annual growth rate of 4% and a doubling of the market size by 2043. The company’s forecast underscores the significant role of emerging markets and increased demand for express cargo services in driving this expansion.
