Global trade is expected to experience moderate growth in the coming years, but uncertainties such as potential tariff increases and trade disruptions are tempering initial optimistic predictions. According to Allianz Trade, global trade will grow by 3.6% in volume in 2025, driven by companies restocking and households renewing purchases of durable goods while cutting back on service expenditures. An anticipated rush by companies to ship goods before higher tariffs from the incoming Trump administration could also bolster the end-of-year trade figures for 2024.
However, as the impacts of potential new trade conflicts become apparent from mid-2025 and beyond, Allianz Trade has revised its forecasts downward. The new predictions indicate a 2.8% growth in trade volume for 2025, down by 0.2 percentage points from an earlier estimate, and a 2.3% growth for 2026, down by 0.5 percentage points. Allianz Trade’s projections for export prices in U.S. dollars have also been adjusted, now expecting a 2.3% growth rate in 2025 and a 4.1% growth rate in 2026, reflecting reductions of 1.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively.
Meanwhile, the anticipation of tariffs has spurred a short-term surge in U.S. imports. Notably, Chinese exports rose by 6.7% year-over-year in November, and imports of certain consumer goods facing potential tariffs have grown by nearly 20% on average between July and September, presenting an early windfall for freight carriers. The logistics industry has been resilient despite various challenges.
Trade growth tempered by uncertainties
Economic activity in the sector expanded in November as the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) reported a reading of 58.4, slightly down from October’s 58.9. This consistent performance indicates a return to traditional seasonal patterns after years of fluctuating conditions. Zac Rogers, an associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University and an analyst for the LMI, noted that the consistent readings reflect a return to normalcy.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months,” Rogers said. “Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
The year-end uptick reflects a healthy holiday peak, with retailers stocking up in anticipation of consumer demand. After a volatile peak season in recent years, marked by the pandemic, inflation, and economic uncertainty, the relatively stable conditions of late 2024 signal a more predictable holiday season.
Looking ahead to 2025, the logistics sector is poised for transformation driven by several factors. John Paitek, vice president of GEP, highlighted the incoming challenges. “After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm,” Paitek said.
Nonetheless, he warned of a “calm before the storm,” predicting significant changes and challenges in the next year, including protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, and advancements in AI. GEP’s report outlines key trends and strategies for 2025, urging companies to invest in advanced AI for demand forecasting and supply chain optimization, broaden value metrics beyond cost efficiency, strengthen supply chain transparency, and reassess total cost of ownership in light of geopolitical risks.
