Air cargo rates have remained firm despite concerns over the impact of US tariffs on China, the temporarily suspended de minimis ban, and the Lunar New Year slowdown. The global Baltic Air Freight Index shows that average airfreight rates were up 1.7% week on week and 12.8% ahead of a year ago. Rates out of China were slightly higher in both Europe and the US, with outbound Shanghai increasing by 8.1% week on week and 10.7% ahead of last year.
Hong Kong rates declined 0.9% week on week but remain 14.2% ahead of last year. Industry observers have noted the difficulty in determining how much of the decline was caused by the Lunar New Year holiday and how much is due to the short-lived de minimis ban.
Air cargo market trends observed
TAC Index said that rates reported post-Chinese New Year do not reflect anything dramatic yet. Overall, rates were rising on most major lanes outside Europe, including China, Japan, and the US. Overall, rates from the US were slightly higher in Europe than in China and South America.
WorldACD reported that tonnages from China to the US dropped steeply in early February, but it’s difficult to separate the impact of the holidays and the de minimis ban. The resulting customs processing backlogs led to the suspension of the presidential order and the cancellation of dozens of e-commerce-loaded freighter flights. In early February, the US announced that packages worth less than $800 could be imported duty-free once again while systems are put in place to process the millions of de minimis packages.
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