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One story.
Three layers.

Tension

A Nobel Peace Prize-winning reformer is now the shared enemy of the three largest ethnic-federal armed movements in Ethiopia, groups that spent the last five years fighting each other.

Noise

Coverage will focus on whether the alliance can actually overthrow Abiy Ahmed, and on the drama of former enemies embracing. The more important question is what has to be true about a government for its historically opposed opponents to decide it is a bigger threat than one another.

Direct Message

The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival may or may not take Addis Ababa. Its existence already confirms that Abiy's political center has narrowed to the point where coordination among his opponents is easier than competition — the structural fact underneath every headline that will follow.

Follow the evidence →
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The Direct Message

One letter a week. Politics, read clearly.