Under the tree for 2020: Retail learns to profit from data without over-segmenting the shopper

This article was originally published in 2019 and was last updated on June 9th, 2025.

• Tension: The tools for retail innovation—first-party data, social commerce pipes, AI-driven micro-segments—are finally mature, yet each promises higher ROI only if brands can orchestrate them without inflating complexity or eroding trust.

• Noise: “Future of retail” headlines celebrate every shiny format, obscuring hidden frictions: privacy backlash, carbon-cost shipping, in-house content bottlenecks, and the race to monetize audiences faster than Amazon can undercut price.

• Direct Message: Competitive advantage now lies in integrating these tools around customer-validated value, not stacking them for show; segment until behaviors are predictable, then invest every extra dollar in consent, sustainability, and experience depth.

To learn more about our editorial approach, explore The Direct Message methodology.

Five years ago “fast, free, and everywhere” felt like the final form of retail.

By 2025, it’s clear that the model can’t scale indefinitely: batteries, privacy rules, and attention spans all have limits.

The new game is value density — extracting more lifetime revenue, insight, and goodwill from each interaction, whether it happens in a TikTok Shop, a climate-neutral warehouse, or a shared high-street storefront.

The expert takes that follow-up map where money and mindshare are headed next, so you can adjust your roadmap before Q4 gift wrapping begins.

Media networks for big-box retailers

As consumers continue to expect more personalized recommendations and site experiences, other retailers will compete in this space further monetizing their own platforms and/or helping their marketing partners find customers in publisher marketplaces.

— Anne-Marie Schaffer; general manager ? retail ? EVP, Merkle

Social commerce

Instagram, Pinterest and Snapchat have all launched shopping functionality in 2019. While these have been in various forms of beta and early stages this year, it will have a much larger impact next year when it is more widely available. Customers will be able to save their payment methods, shop brands they are already engaged with and complete the transaction all without leaving the app. This will effectively become another large channel that eCommerce retailers will need to consider when planning their marketing strategy.

— Harry Thakkar, partner, Avatria

E-commerce as an ad channel

So many e-commerce formats have emerged – from Stories to shoppable posts across all different channels — and each one is designed to reach audiences at specific points in the journey. Understanding those nuances, and how these different formats can work together will become increasingly important in 2020. Building a cross-platform approach will help marketers avoid a siloed strategy and will propel the business in a competitive market.

— Wes MacLaggan, SVP of marketing, Marin Software

E-commerce companies are emerging as the new breed of publishers

In 2020, this will further challenge traditional publishers for ad dollars. With strong first-party data pools, logged-in user bases, and clear relationships with consumers, commerce companies have the opportunity to build material ad businesses. While we’ve already seen companies like Target, Best Buy and Instacart look to follow Amazon’s lead, next year even more non-traditional large-scale apps such as Uber will make big moves to implement ad offerings.  The key blocker here will be having ad DNA and tech to capitalize on this opportunity quickly.

 — Justin Choi, CEO and founder, Nativo

Online merchandising for retail

Merchandisers will play a central role in retail eCommerce in 2020. We believe the role of online merchandising will play a significant part in every retailer’s success next year. Online merchandisers will be critical as they become more data-empowered and able to be the bridge between marketing, optimization, IT and the customer. Merchandisers will be the part of the essential team that matches a customer’s brand or SKU affinity with stock and trading trends. This role is set to expand in scope and responsibility in 2020 as merchandisers become the heroes of every ecommerce team delivering both revenue and experience impact. 

— Graham Cooke, CEO and co-founder, Qubit

In-housing, scalable content

In 2019, we saw big-name brands like Citi and Walmart bringing more marketing functions in-house. As this trend continues, there will be a need for solutions that streamline the creation of content, so it can be developed quickly, but without sacrificing on quality, and so that content is scalable.

— Shachar Orren, CMO at EX.CO

“I need it now” backlash

Buying almost everything online and one-click purchases are obviously here to stay, but in 2020, we will start to see a backlash against “I need it now” shipping. As consumers hear more stories from the warehouses, distribution center,s and shipping hubs, will they decide they don’t really need that roll of paper towels delivered tomorrow? Amazon already offers slower shipping incentives, and perhaps in 2020, we’ll start to move from free two-day shipping to discounts for five-day shipping. To add to this, consumers are becoming more conscious of their carbon footprint, and a younger generation values experiences over material things. Perhaps we also see some backlash against material goods and a move towards enriching experiences.

— Steve Grimes, chief digital officer, AKA NYC

The direct message

Stop layering tech on top of tech—align data, delivery, and dialogue around what the shopper truly values, and every new channel becomes an extension of trust, not another point of friction.

Brand and retail opposition to Amazon

Nike recently announced they were pulling their products from Amazon. Nike was able to do this because their purchase of Celect, which allowed Nike to bring personalization to their own properties. Amazon used to have the advantage here, since you would have to log in to Amazon to peruse products, and then products would be shown to the user on a person-by-person level. However, brands are getting smarter about leveraging the vast first-party data they have and creating identity graphs that deliver the ability to personalize ads. Now, there’s now less need for a brand to hand over inventory to Amazon, and brands like Target, Wal-Mart and Kroger are even thinking about monetizing their own online digital inventory like a news publisher does.

— Kerel Cooper, SVP global marketing, LiveIntent

Decentralized, data-driven local events

Retail brands with brick-and-mortar locations are increasing their investments in local, in-store events to drive sales, store traffic, customer acquisition, and participation in loyalty programs, and that’s a trend we see continuing throughout 2020.

To manage and market these events across tens or hundreds of locations with limited resources, retailers are looking for technologies that help decentralize event marketing without compromising brand integrity.

A headquarters team needs control over digital branding and visibility into event data, and the local teams need the flexibility to create and customize events that they know will work well in their markets. There is, and will continue to be, a growing interest in technologies that support this decentralization of event marketing and allow retail brands to effectively scale event programs.

— Kevin Hubschmann, head of retail strategy, Splash

Sharing economy for retail spaces

Whether it’s the “sharing economy” of retail spaces or a response to skyrocketing urban rents and overspending on real estate (or a little bit of both), expect to see shared retail spaces or multi-vendor “markets” growing in popularity. Retailers benefit from increased foot traffic, great brand associations, and reduced rent. Shoppers love one-stop shopping, increased browsability, and the bespoke feel. The market is open!

— Tom Buiocchi, CEO, ServiceChannel

DTC shift to retention

Direct-to-consumer brands are growing mobile audiences much faster, but their total reach is still dwarfed by established retailers, according to Comscore’s Global State of Mobile, 2019. Expect to see more linkages between these two sets of retailers in 2020, as established retailers seek to acquire more digital acumen, and savvy DTCs ink partnerships to reach more consumers. Above all, expect both to shift their focus to customer retention, as Mary Meeker pointed out that social ads are getting too expensive, making customer acquisition harder.

An uncertain global economic outlook and regulatory roadblocks to third-party data will accelerate this shift, and for the first time in modern marketing history, clever lifecycle marketing campaigns will outshine the flashiest 30-second commercials, especially in terms of bottom-line impact.

— Mike Herrick, SVP Technology, Airship

PR beats influencers

Brands will get smarter about influencers. Our data shows that traditional PR is still better at driving sales than influencers on average. However, as influencer strategies mature, brands that choose individuals closely aligned with their audience and messaging (instead of just a celebrity) will have stronger odds of success and resonance with their target market.

— Mike Menkes, SVP, Analytic Partners